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Should Ukraine Secede?
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 Group admin 
Wow, long time since a new topic. Anyways, some major things going on in Eastern Europe right now. Ukraine recently staged a "coup" which removed President Victor Yankovich from office, after reports of corruption. It seems that Western Ukraine wants to be closer to Western Europe, and distance itself from Russia, while Eastern Ukraine wants the opposite. But to add even more complications, Russia has sent in armed troops into the Ukraine.

So, what does this all mean? Was Yankovich's removal justified? Should Ukraine move towards a more Western Europe connection? Is this a Russian invasion? And what should NATO, among others, do?


DEBATE!
Permalink
| March 2, 2014, 1:43 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Was Yankovich's removal justified?

yep it was.

Quoting Achintya Prasad

Should Ukraine move towards a more Western Europe connection?

In the future maybe yes, in case you mean joining the EU. Actual not.

Quoting Achintya Prasad

Is this a Russian invasion? And what should NATO, among others, do?

If troops move in a country without any provocation then its an act of war.
About the NATO, the Ucraine isnt a member of the NATO. Not NATO member was attacked.
Im not sure, if any western nation should intervane in this conflict. Remember 1914!
Permalink
| March 3, 2014, 2:07 am
This is actually a very complex situation, and personally i'm not sure where to stand on this..

In many ways, both parties actually do have a claim on crimea.

Russia a historical claim (it was theirs for some 200 years).

Ukraine a legislative claim (it was given to them by khrushchev in the 50's as compensation for damages done during the stalin-era).
Permalink
| March 3, 2014, 11:25 am
 Group admin 
Quoting Locutus 666
yep it was.

Quoting Achintya Prasad

Should Ukraine move towards a more Western Europe connection?

In the future maybe yes, in case you mean joining the EU. Actual not.

Quoting Achintya Prasad

Is this a Russian invasion? And what should NATO, among others, do?

If troops move in a country without any provocation then its an act of war.
About the NATO, the Ucraine isnt a member of the NATO. Not NATO member was attacked.
Im not sure, if any western nation should intervane in this conflict. Remember 1914!

No, I think I disagree. There was a treat signed by the US, UK, Ukraine, and Russia, that ruled that the Ukraine would give Russia its nukes, and in return, non of the signers of the treaty would, among other things, invade Ukraine. Circa 2014, Dictator Putin has rolled his military right into Ukraine...
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 4:42 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
This is actually a very complex situation, and personally i'm not sure where to stand on this..

In many ways, both parties actually do have a claim on crimea.

Russia a historical claim (it was theirs for some 200 years).

Ukraine a legislative claim (it was given to them by khrushchev in the 50's as compensation for damages done during the stalin-era).

I go with kicking Russia out. This is a classic case of a large, aggressive, foreign power wanting land because of some sort of claim, and then pushing forward to take whatever. Hitler much?
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 4:44 pm
what i see is that Russia is taking the chance to expand, even if that involves a armed invasion. Ukraine is in a state of panic so the Russians see that it is a good time to kick them when they are down. perfect tactic if the UN wasn't involved.
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 5:50 pm
I'm going to go with what Hillary said about Benghazi, "What difference does it make?!?!" And really, that's the truth. The ONLY thing that matters in the US is that the people who are getting everything for free keep getting it. Do you think they care about Russia or Ukraine? Do you think they know where those places are? Do they know where THEY are? No, no, annnnnd no. We have no prepared plan of action, the prez and co aren't that interested, and actually, he probably likes having a 'foreign policy issue' dominating the news cycle instead of his failing Obummercare. So, let's throw Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe under the bus, and we can keep handing out billions in food stamps and iPhones! Awesome!
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 9:08 pm
Quoting El Barto !
I'm going to go with what Hillary said about Benghazi, "What difference does it make?!?!" And really, that's the truth. The ONLY thing that matters in the US is that the people who are getting everything for free keep getting it. Do you think they care about Russia or Ukraine? Do you think they know where those places are? Do they know where THEY are? No, no, annnnnd no. We have no prepared plan of action, the prez and co aren't that interested, and actually, he probably likes having a 'foreign policy issue' dominating the news cycle instead of his failing Obummercare. So, let's throw Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe under the bus, and we can keep handing out billions in food stamps and iPhones! Awesome!

I love your comments.
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 9:26 pm
 Group admin 
Putin can do this because he knows that nobody will stop him. He continually gives us the bird, give him one back by moving missile defense near his border. Beat them in an arms race, do so the stuff that won us the cold war. Radio Free Europe helped spread the truth, use that general idea.
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 9:35 pm
Thanks! I know it sounds really sarcastic, but it's 100% accurate. The UN will do nothing, NATO will do nothing (remember, WE are NATO). We have too much to loose with severing ties with Russia (remember, we don't have a space program anymore), we need them to deal with Iran and Syria. There's little to gain from helping Ukraine, other than fostering freedom and democracy, oh well. And, most importantly, we're in no position militarily or financially, and have no stomach, to project power.
Now it's China's turn. Wonder what they might do?
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 9:39 pm
Quoting Michael K.
Putin can do this because he knows that nobody will stop him. He continually gives us the bird, give him one back by moving missile defense near his border. Beat them in an arms race, do so the stuff that won us the cold war. Radio Free Europe helped spread the truth, use that general idea.

That's what Churchill would do, or Reagan. Too bad we've got Chamberlain.
Permalink
| March 5, 2014, 9:48 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
I go with kicking Russia out. This is a classic case of a large, aggressive, foreign power wanting land because of some sort of claim, and then pushing forward to take whatever. Hitler much?

I agree putin shouldn't have invaded :-) However, i really don't think we would be doing the crimean population (of which 60% is of russian origin) any favors if we responded agressively.

What to do about it, i don't know. Poking the russian bear just doesn't seem like a good idea to me :-D
Permalink
| March 6, 2014, 1:55 am
Quoting Achintya Prasad
No, I think I disagree. There was a treat signed by the US, UK, Ukraine, and Russia, that ruled that the Ukraine would give Russia its nukes, and in return, non of the signers of the treaty would, among other things, invade Ukraine. Circa 2014, Dictator Putin has rolled his military right into Ukraine...

Im actual not sure if we misunderstood us.
My post says (or even is intended to say) that Putins troops are illegaly moved in.

Permalink
| March 6, 2014, 2:26 am
Georgia all over again.

Bet they're wishing they hadn't given away their nukes now.

It doesn't really matter what they want; Yankovich is a modern-day Abraham Lincoln, who'd rather rule a ruin than the half of the country that actually likes him.
Permalink
| March 7, 2014, 8:03 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Locutus 666
Im actual not sure if we misunderstood us.
My post says (or even is intended to say) that Putins troops are illegaly moved in.

Oh. well. Yeah, we do agree then :-D

I'm just wondering what China will do.
Permalink
| March 7, 2014, 8:26 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Areetsa C
Georgia all over again.

Bet they're wishing they hadn't given away their nukes now.

It doesn't really matter what they want; Yankovich is a modern-day Abraham Lincoln, who'd rather rule a ruin than the half of the country that actually likes him.

Yankovich? I dunno. At least Lincoln brought the country back together, abolished slavery, and had a would-be successful Reunion of the South. Yankovich was pretty much a corrupt puppet that Putin used. He isn't even in the country. So is he Abraham Lincoln? No. Not at all.
Permalink
| March 7, 2014, 8:35 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
I agree putin shouldn't have invaded :-) However, i really don't think we would be doing the crimean population (of which 60% is of russian origin) any favors if we responded agressively.

What to do about it, i don't know. Poking the russian bear just doesn't seem like a good idea to me :-D

Hmm. Europe is in a really strange position. No one in Western Europe is liking this, but they know that if they oppose Russia, then all that natural gas they get will dry up, and just like that, Western Europe will slow to a crawl.

The US is, predictably, sending ships to the Black Sea. It's the only country that can stand and do something.
Permalink
| March 7, 2014, 8:38 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Hmm. Europe is in a really strange position. No one in Western Europe is liking this, but they know that if they oppose Russia, then all that natural gas they get will dry up, and just like that, Western Europe will slow to a crawl.

The US is, predictably, sending ships to the Black Sea. It's the only country that can stand and do something.

I am certain you are right in the case of several european countries. However, denmark actually doesn't buy natural gas from russia, as we have our own fields (both oil and gas) in the north sea. My viewpoint is more pragmatic - we're a small country and since the rest of europe hesitates too, i don't see why i should demand my own government does anything more than they're doing now - joining the EU choir in protesting and 'sanctioning'.

Also, there's more at stake here than crimea. In the event of actual conflict, the russians are in their own backyard, have the support of many locals and already know the terrain well from their bases there. Other russian-minded parts of ukraine could be lost to russia as well, or the conflict even escalated to include other areas in europe. More specifically those agreed upon in the jalta-agreement following WWII.

Hehe.. I agree there, noone here really dares do much :-D The only similar move i have heard of in europe is sweden, who expanded their air patrols in gotland - an island near russian territory and interest zones.
In the end, i don't believe that the US will engage in conflict either though. It will simply end up in too big a mess then :-)
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 2:53 am
Oups, 'more specifically those' should have been 'more specifically SOME OF those'.

About what china will do.. Nothing right now, i think. This is about as interesting to them as a local conflict in africa is to most westerners :-)
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 3:02 am
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Hmm. Europe is in a really strange position. No one in Western Europe is liking this, but they know that if they oppose Russia, then all that natural gas they get will dry up, and just like that, Western Europe will slow to a crawl.

The US is, predictably, sending ships to the Black Sea. It's the only country that can stand and do something.

If Europe would oppose Russia and Russia cut the gas supply, this wouldnt be bad just for Europe. Besides the Ukraine Europe is the most important customer for Russia. No gas - no money.
As usual, the situation is more complex.
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 10:09 am
 Group admin 
Quoting Locutus 666
If Europe would oppose Russia and Russia cut the gas supply, this wouldnt be bad just for Europe. Besides the Ukraine Europe is the most important customer for Russia. No gas - no money.
As usual, the situation is more complex.

That is true, the sanctions would be a double edged sword. But the effects would be much more real and quick for Europe. Some may even go as far as to say that Europe could suffer blackouts, simply because of the loss of Russian Natural Gas. In the meantime, Russia can still export its stuff to much of Eastern Europe.

The only way Europe could standup to Russia is by receiving energy from somewhere else. If the US exported more of it's oil, it wouldn't be a problem. But will it happen? It's all in the hands of, sigh, congress...
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 10:11 am
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
I am certain you are right in the case of several european countries. However, denmark actually doesn't buy natural gas from russia, as we have our own fields (both oil and gas) in the north sea. My viewpoint is more pragmatic - we're a small country and since the rest of europe hesitates too, i don't see why i should demand my own government does anything more than they're doing now - joining the EU choir in protesting and 'sanctioning'.

Also, there's more at stake here than crimea. In the event of actual conflict, the russians are in their own backyard, have the support of many locals and already know the terrain well from their bases there. Other russian-minded parts of ukraine could be lost to russia as well, or the conflict even escalated to include other areas in europe. More specifically those agreed upon in the jalta-agreement following WWII.

Hehe.. I agree there, noone here really dares do much :-D The only similar move i have heard of in europe is sweden, who expanded their air patrols in gotland - an island near russian territory and interest zones.
In the end, i don't believe that the US will engage in conflict either though. It will simply end up in too big a mess then :-)

Huh, I didn't know that Denmark was mostly independent in energy. At least they can stand up!

This situation is tracking eerily like Hitler and Napoleon's conquests. Hitler claimed that people in the Rhineland wanted to be reunited with Germany. The rest is history.

I'm alarmed that Russia may just push on. Estonia, etc. They all technically were part of the USSR. Putin may just play the historical-part-of-Russia card in all these cases.

The US probably won't go to war. At least not yet. But Alaska is only 100 miles away from Russia. A conflict of that magnitude would be, well, devastating, to world peace.
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 10:17 am
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
Oups, 'more specifically those' should have been 'more specifically SOME OF those'.

About what china will do.. Nothing right now, i think. This is about as interesting to them as a local conflict in africa is to most westerners :-)

Hmm. I'm not so sure. Officially, they side with Russia. But if things go even further south, then China has to pick sides. Honestly, this is a worst case scenario. They would be better off in a flat out war with the US. Instead, they have to side for or against it, with both outcomes utter destruction.

China should just watch right now. There isn't a leadership role it can take here.
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 10:24 am
 Group admin 
One idea I heard, was let Putin cut off their gas, we could sell them our energy, as we have plenty, of only the government would let us export it.
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 10:24 am
 Group admin 
Quoting Michael K.
One idea I heard, was let Putin cut off their gas, we could sell them our energy, as we have plenty, of only the government would let us export it.

Yeah, that is a good idea. It would allow more profit for us, increase jobs here in the US. But most of our gas is being used domestically. And, once again. It all sits on Congress. And it's election year. Gahhhhh
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 10:26 am
As with most things like this, its about money. The BRIC nations include Russia. These are competitors to "the west", the established global economic and monetary system used by the US, EU, and their hangers-on. I have no answers, only more questions. 1. Are the protestors organic to Ukraine or are they outside agitators employed by various EU bankers and government interests? 2. Is Putin looking after the interests of pro-russia Ukraine citizens or is he going to carve it up and take over a chunk at a time, like Hitler did Czechoslovakia? It is an interesting case to study, but our US sensational propaganda networks are not to be trusted. We may never know what is really going on.
Permalink
| March 8, 2014, 11:24 am
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Huh, I didn't know that Denmark was mostly independent in energy. At least they can stand up!

This situation is tracking eerily like Hitler and Napoleon's conquests. Hitler claimed that people in the Rhineland wanted to be reunited with Germany. The rest is history.

I'm alarmed that Russia may just push on. Estonia, etc. They all technically were part of the USSR. Putin may just play the historical-part-of-Russia card in all these cases.

The US probably won't go to war. At least not yet. But Alaska is only 100 miles away from Russia. A conflict of that magnitude would be, well, devastating, to world peace.

Indeed we are, but while we could stand up in this affair, our government won't for three reasons:
1: is in your correct statement - the key word is 'mostly'. When we need to buy energy, it is in the form of electricity from norway or - germany. And oil from the middle east.
2: Denmark is a big exporter of goods, and we have several large trade partners in both eastern and western europe (poland, france, germany, ukraine, russia, spain, the baltic nations, sweden, norway, italy, greece) that our government does it's best not to offend.
3: Militarily, we can do little. Our defense is built to withstand attacks for a few hours while waiting for NATO to come to the rescue. Other than that, we only have a small so-called 'international force' of 5-10.000 men to send on NATO missions in other countries.

I agree there are some parallels to the events leading up to WWII, and only time will tell if that was his plan all along.

I just think that crimea was lost from the day the russians set foot on the island (outside their bases), and pretty much nothing short of a nuke will end their occupation now. I have no doubt that things in the crimea will turn from bad now to even worse for the population there if (when) the russian claim is accepted.
But if this ends up in conflict, there is a very real possibility that the very scenario you describe will become a reality. If the russians have to fight anyway, then why not grab some more land to negotiate with later? That's my fear :-)

I agree, it would be absolutely devastating to world peace - and the world. I think the US will wait until the conflict moves outside crimea - if it should do so - before they engage in any conflict. That's the way it seems most european leaders are handling the situation anyway :-)
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 1:01 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Hmm. I'm not so sure. Officially, they side with Russia. But if things go even further south, then China has to pick sides. Honestly, this is a worst case scenario. They would be better off in a flat out war with the US. Instead, they have to side for or against it, with both outcomes utter destruction.

China should just watch right now. There isn't a leadership role it can take here.

Mmm i thought they rarely spoke with the same voice in the UN these days unless it was opportune for them? During the second half of the cold war, their relations cooled down i read somewhere :-) I actually think the best path for china is to stay completely out of it. With the rest of the world in conflict, they have peace to grow their economy and power even more.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 1:12 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
Indeed we are, but while we could stand up in this affair, our government won't for three reasons:
1: is in your correct statement - the key word is 'mostly'. When we need to buy energy, it is in the form of electricity from norway or - germany. And oil from the middle east.
2: Denmark is a big exporter of goods, and we have several large trade partners in both eastern and western europe (poland, france, germany, ukraine, russia, spain, the baltic nations, sweden, norway, italy, greece) that our government does it's best not to offend.
3: Militarily, we can do little. Our defense is built to withstand attacks for a few hours while waiting for NATO to come to the rescue. Other than that, we only have a small so-called 'international force' of 5-10.000 men to send on NATO missions in other countries.

I agree there are some parallels to the events leading up to WWII, and only time will tell if that was his plan all along.

I just think that crimea was lost from the day the russians set foot on the island (outside their bases), and pretty much nothing short of a nuke will end their occupation now. I have no doubt that things in the crimea will turn from bad now to even worse for the population there if (when) the russian claim is accepted.
But if this ends up in conflict, there is a very real possibility that the very scenario you describe will become a reality. If the russians have to fight anyway, then why not grab some more land to negotiate with later? That's my fear :-)

I agree, it would be absolutely devastating to world peace - and the world. I think the US will wait until the conflict moves outside crimea - if it should do so - before they engage in any conflict. That's the way it seems most european leaders are handling the situation anyway :-)

I agree. We should wait for Russia to make the next move.

What's concerning, though, it what that next move will be.

I could see them move forward to Kiev, in an attempt to reinstall Yanukovich. If that happens, we need to send in NATO troops ASAP.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 6:43 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
Mmm i thought they rarely spoke with the same voice in the UN these days unless it was opportune for them? During the second half of the cold war, their relations cooled down i read somewhere :-) I actually think the best path for china is to stay completely out of it. With the rest of the world in conflict, they have peace to grow their economy and power even more.

Not for long. China is pretty much the only country who could be a mediator in this conflict. You can count on the US holding an embargo against China. It wouldn't exactly be a peaceful economic growth for them.

Besides, I'm sure investors are a bit cautious in spending into a country that borders (and supposedly supports) Russia...
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 6:48 pm
 Group admin 
The EU is paralyzed because they'll be sitting in the dark if Russia turns off their gas. If we sent them our gas, russsias economy would go south fast. Exporting energy is the only reason they managed a tiny bit of economic growth. They really have their heart set on getting this area, but how willing are they to bite the economic bullet? Perhaps that, coupled with sanctions like we did to Iran, could be bring them to their knees. Unless we're willing to go that far, we could just say if a majority of people want to join Russia, let them. But I think this would likely embolden Russia to attack more of their former sattelites. In WWII, Hitler invading Poland wasn't our problem, but if we had nipped it in the bud, WWII wouldn't have been our problem later on.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 6:57 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Not for long. China is pretty much the only country who could be a mediator in this conflict. You can count on the US holding an embargo against China. It wouldn't exactly be a peaceful economic growth for them.

Besides, I'm sure investors are a bit cautious in spending into a country that borders (and supposedly supports) Russia...

Are you kidding? Russia and China are best pals on the UN Security Council. Count on them to support the worst in the world.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 6:59 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Michael K.
Are you kidding? Russia and China are best pals on the UN Security Council. Count on them to support the worst in the world.

That is true.

The only thing is that China is close to the US, at least economically. It would really have to give up a lot to fully appose us. That would include economic stability.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 7:03 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Michael K.
The EU is paralyzed because they'll be sitting in the dark if Russia turns off their gas. If we sent them our gas, russsias economy would go south fast. Exporting energy is the only reason they managed a tiny bit of economic growth. They really have their heart set on getting this area, but how willing are they to bite the economic bullet? Perhaps that, coupled with sanctions like we did to Iran, could be bring them to their knees. Unless we're willing to go that far, we could just say if a majority of people want to join Russia, let them. But I think this would likely embolden Russia to attack more of their former sattelites. In WWII, Hitler invading Poland wasn't our problem, but if we had nipped it in the bud, WWII wouldn't have been our problem later on.

Crimea may want to secede. But the fact that Russia sent in troops before that was fully established is what the issue is. Oh, and the continued occupation (it is still technically part of the Ukraine).

Let them leave. So long as the people in Kiev want that to happen, sure. But we need to stand with them, even if Crimea is not let go.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 7:05 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Achintya Prasad
That is true.

The only thing is that China is close to the US, at least economically. It would really have to give up a lot to fully appose us. That would include economic stability.

That is absolutely right, but what president or politician would do that?
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 7:08 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Michael K.
That is absolutely right, but what president or politician would do that?

Heh, not Obama...

If we do nothing, than Russia, for sure, will take every advantage it can until Obama is out of office. And that is still some time away....
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 7:12 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Achintya Prasad
If we do nothing, than Russia, for sure, will take every advantage it can until Obama is out of office. And that is still some time away....
Unfortunately.
I see an East Ukraine and a West Ukraine coming out of this. Much of the western part of the country wants to be part of Russia while the other part hates Russia for when Stalin killed 6 million Ukrainians. That's why they pulled down the statue of Stalin at the beginning of the riots.
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 7:25 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting The Object of Legend
Quoting Achintya Prasad
If we do nothing, than Russia, for sure, will take every advantage it can until Obama is out of office. And that is still some time away....
Unfortunately.
I see an East Ukraine and a West Ukraine coming out of this. Much of the western part of the country wants to be part of Russia while the other part hates Russia for when Stalin killed 6 million Ukrainians. That's why they pulled down the statue of Stalin at the beginning of the riots.

I think you mean that the Eastern part of the Country wants to be part of Russia.

While there may be influence concerning what Stalin did, I think this was more geared towards the continued corruption of Yankovich, and this return to Putin.

I can see a Western and Eastern Ukraine. It's just, when will it be reunited?
Permalink
| March 10, 2014, 9:04 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Achintya Prasad
I think you mean that the Eastern part of the Country wants to be part of Russia.
While there may be influence concerning what Stalin did, I think this was more geared towards the continued corruption of Yankovich, and this return to Putin.
I can see a Western and Eastern Ukraine. It's just, when will it be reunited?
Yeah, sorry, I typed that backward. I'm not sure it will be reunited. The trend has be to make more countries not to unify them. This has been going on for awhile: Yugoslavia, Eritrea, Kosovo, and South Sudan to name a few. I can think of any countries that have been reunited in that time.

Permalink
| March 11, 2014, 6:46 am
Quoting Builder Allan
Oups, 'more specifically those' should have been 'more specifically SOME OF those'.

About what china will do.. Nothing right now, i think. This is about as interesting to them as a local conflict in africa is to most westerners :-)

Oh no, they're watching. They've apparently got something similar going on with Japan over some islands.

Obama's all "hold me back, guys!"; he won't do anything, and Putin knows it.

So when the Russians get away with this, and you know they will, the Chicoms are going to get ideas.


Though what the Russians did to the Ukrainian navy was inspired.
Permalink
| March 11, 2014, 7:27 am
Quoting Michael K.
The EU is paralyzed because they'll be sitting in the dark if Russia turns off their gas.

About 30 to 40% of the needed gas comes from Russia.
The funny thing is, the Europeans are stupid enough to go against Russia while they try to secure their fleet base at crimea which is established with legal contracts to the ucrainian government.

The EU news network propaganda runs at 100% to tell all the people how bad Putin is. Of course, Putin isnt a clean nice guy but hes not like Stalin or Hitler (as Mrs. Clinton describes him).
While that, now the schizophrenic part comes, europe politicians talk to a bunch of ultra-nationalism guys which call themself the actual parliament.

The USA is playing with fire in a europe forest. The EU is watching this while clapping the hands.
The world becomes grazy, if it ever was normal yet.


Permalink
| March 12, 2014, 5:17 am
Quoting Areetsa C
Oh no, they're watching. They've apparently got something similar going on with Japan over some islands.

Obama's all "hold me back, guys!"; he won't do anything, and Putin knows it.

So when the Russians get away with this, and you know they will, the Chicoms are going to get ideas.


Though what the Russians did to the Ukrainian navy was inspired.

Oh yeah, thats right! The Kurils i think it is. Some islands to the north of japan anyways :-)

I agree, putin knows that if he doesn't escalate things further, world leaders (including european ones) won't do anything more than what they're doing now - very little.

And yep, I'm pretty certain too that a year from now, we'll all have accepted crimea as russian.
The irony is that had he been more patient and played his cards right, 5 years from now the world community would have handed it to him on a silver platter (no less) with full official blessing from pretty much every single country that opposes him now.

However, i think a chinese/japanese conflict would be (relatively) less destabilizing for world peace. Whether china will use the example or not, i don't know. I don't know enough about that conflict or china to take a guess :-D But to the average chinese, this conflict must seem very far away.

Uhmm i think i missed what they did, it must have happened in the first days of the conflict when news from there were quickly out of date :-)
Permalink
| March 12, 2014, 1:06 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Not for long. China is pretty much the only country who could be a mediator in this conflict. You can count on the US holding an embargo against China. It wouldn't exactly be a peaceful economic growth for them.

Besides, I'm sure investors are a bit cautious in spending into a country that borders (and supposedly supports) Russia...

Well as mediator i still think there could be other choices, but yes, i am certain too that if china does choose a side in the conflict, the other side will react politically with embargo's, conflict or similar moves.

I still think though, there is a chance that china could - and most likely would attempt - to stay out of it. At least as long as things doesn't escalate :-)

I agree investors could be discouraged if china takes an 'undesirable' stand in the UN or a conflict with russia arises :-)
A bit ironical that last one actually, as most of the production centers are placed in or near the large cities near the coastline, far from russia.
Permalink
| March 12, 2014, 1:26 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
I agree. We should wait for Russia to make the next move.

What's concerning, though, it what that next move will be.

I could see them move forward to Kiev, in an attempt to reinstall Yanukovich. If that happens, we need to send in NATO troops ASAP.

That's a concern yes, but i think putin's next move will be a political attempt to make world leaders accept the (unofficial) vote being held on.. uuh, sunday, i think it is. Rightfully unrecognized as it is, in that case i think EU would attempt to coerce ukraine into accepting it, just to escape the whole mess. That would bring the whole situation to a rather unsatisfying end, but at least a peaceful end.

I think putin knows that violently reinstating yanukovich would be an unwise move, and if that happens, not only do i very much agree that NATO should react with full agression, i am pretty certain that it will too. Then we would really have a mess on our hands :-)
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| March 12, 2014, 1:38 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
That's a concern yes, but i think putin's next move will be a political attempt to make world leaders accept the (unofficial) vote being held on.. uuh, sunday, i think it is. Rightfully unrecognized as it is, in that case i think EU would attempt to coerce ukraine into accepting it, just to escape the whole mess. That would bring the whole situation to a rather unsatisfying end, but at least a peaceful end.

I think putin knows that violently reinstating yanukovich would be an unwise move, and if that happens, not only do i very much agree that NATO should react with full agression, i am pretty certain that it will too. Then we would really have a mess on our hands :-)

Agreed, that makes sense. The thing is that even if Ukraine is forced to accept it, Crimea is directly connected to Ukraine. There is no land route straight to Russia. So any sort of cession would still render Crimea dependent on Ukraine. I just don't see Putin wanting a territory under control by, essentially, the West.

This meeting is very important. If there is no resolution, Putin will push forward. Who knows how he will claim other lands, but he will move forward.

To respond to your China comment. No one in Beijing is confident right now. They are stuck smack in the middle. The Chinese factories are far from the Russian border, but I'd think that the Russian Navy could more than disarm the Chinese "fleet." One carrier and a handful of "modern" destroyers won't be able to stave off the Russians. That may lead the US to step in. And honestly, no one would dare to challenge the US Pacific Fleet.

So even though the factories aren't really close to Russia, they are still in danger, if not from ships then by ICBMs and Cruise Missiles.
Permalink
| March 12, 2014, 2:08 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
Agreed, that makes sense. The thing is that even if Ukraine is forced to accept it, Crimea is directly connected to Ukraine. There is no land route straight to Russia. So any sort of cession would still render Crimea dependent on Ukraine. I just don't see Putin wanting a territory under control by, essentially, the West.

This meeting is very important. If there is no resolution, Putin will push forward. Who knows how he will claim other lands, but he will move forward.

To respond to your China comment. No one in Beijing is confident right now. They are stuck smack in the middle. The Chinese factories are far from the Russian border, but I'd think that the Russian Navy could more than disarm the Chinese "fleet." One carrier and a handful of "modern" destroyers won't be able to stave off the Russians. That may lead the US to step in. And honestly, no one would dare to challenge the US Pacific Fleet.

So even though the factories aren't really close to Russia, they are still in danger, if not from ships then by ICBMs and Cruise Missiles.

There might not be a land connection, but it is not as isolated from russia as one might think :-) Before the conflict there were ferries from a russian peninsula across from crimea, bordering the sea of azov. And earlier in the current conflict, it was reported that the russians were planning to build a bridge across that gap. Increasing transport by sea or building the bridge would solve that :-)

I actually think that even if diplomacy and talking fails, putin has more to gain from just staying where he is and waiting it out. Unless the west or ukraine moves against him with aggression, there is little that can be said or done to persuade him to withdraw.

You have a point there :-) But perhaps all the more reason for china to attempt to stay out of it for as long as possible. If they are forced to choose sides i am inclined to agree they would side with russia, but perhaps we would both be in for a surprise? As they say, money makes strange... Err, friendships, and there's a lot of money coming in from the US trade :-)
Permalink
| March 12, 2014, 3:06 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Builder Allan
There might not be a land connection, but it is not as isolated from russia as one might think :-) Before the conflict there were ferries from a russian peninsula across from crimea, bordering the sea of azov. And earlier in the current conflict, it was reported that the russians were planning to build a bridge across that gap. Increasing transport by sea or building the bridge would solve that :-)

I actually think that even if diplomacy and talking fails, putin has more to gain from just staying where he is and waiting it out. Unless the west or ukraine moves against him with aggression, there is little that can be said or done to persuade him to withdraw.

You have a point there :-) But perhaps all the more reason for china to attempt to stay out of it for as long as possible. If they are forced to choose sides i am inclined to agree they would side with russia, but perhaps we would both be in for a surprise? As they say, money makes strange... Err, friendships, and there's a lot of money coming in from the US trade :-)

I could see economic opportunities if Russia invests bridges and ferries to better connect Crimea to the motherland. Maybe even a few pipelines.

I'm not sure what Putin will gain from annexing the region. All he'll do is create a new border between the East and West, and one that, honestly, could rather easily be surrounded (from Ukraine, no less). I'm wondering if this will create some sort of DMZ...
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| March 13, 2014, 8:29 pm
Quoting Builder Allan
Uhmm i think i missed what they did, it must have happened in the first days of the conflict when news from there were quickly out of date :-)

Apparently they towed an old derelict into a channel and sank it; seems this means the Ukrainians can't get any real naval vessels out of port.
Permalink
| March 13, 2014, 8:39 pm
well i belive russia entered crimea without warning is trying to take over the region.no i dont believe ukraine or crimea should depart.
Permalink
| March 13, 2014, 9:06 pm
Quoting Areetsa C
Apparently they towed an old derelict into a channel and sank it; seems this means the Ukrainians can't get any real naval vessels out of port.

Hehe.. Clever move, quite classic and difficult to prevent or handle. I didn't know that, thanks for the info!

While i would have preferred not to see that maneuver in the current situation, i have to agree with you there :-)
Permalink
| March 14, 2014, 1:42 pm
Quoting Achintya Prasad
I could see economic opportunities if Russia invests bridges and ferries to better connect Crimea to the motherland. Maybe even a few pipelines.

I'm not sure what Putin will gain from annexing the region. All he'll do is create a new border between the East and West, and one that, honestly, could rather easily be surrounded (from Ukraine, no less). I'm wondering if this will create some sort of DMZ...

I don't know if the crimea has any notable resources, industry or other production, but it is a summer traveling destination for many russians - and i think other europeans too. The historical resort town of jalta is located there, along with some other resort towns.
It would also suddenly place the large russian bases there on 'russian soil'.

It would be a 'soft spot' yes, but i think maybe putin's aim is to diffuse the risk of attacks on crimea once he gets what he wants. I think that's why he has been careful so far not to let things get to the point of active aggression.

I don't know if this could end with a DMZ-type solution.
I don't know if it is being debated among world leaders either, but i think putin would oppose the idea. That would have a negative effect on the bases there and also remove the current occupying force, which means he would lose of control over crimea - even if it is russian minded :-)


---- Oups, the response was missing from my first post :-D ----
Permalink
| March 14, 2014, 2:30 pm
 Group admin 
Well, they voted to secede, anyone think it was rigged? And then Obama made some more pathetically idle threats.
Permalink
| March 16, 2014, 9:52 pm
 Group admin 
Quoting Michael K.
Well, they voted to secede, anyone think it was rigged? And then Obama made some more pathetically idle threats.

What was the voting percentage again? Wasn't it, like, 94% or 96% wanted to secede? Yeah, definitely rigged. I saw a report that showed an-anti Putin activist having posters claiming him as an enemy and traitor posted at his apartment block. Russia just scared anyone that bothered to try and undermine any of it's efforts...
Permalink
| March 16, 2014, 10:35 pm

Of course they did. If you had a Kalashnikov pointed at your family, you'd vote 'yes' too.


Certainly the Ukrainians now know the value of American promises; the english got a pass, as they haven't got the guts to protect themselves much less anyone else, and the Russians never have paid much regard to treaties and promises, but the U.S. once made much of the value of its word.

"Get rid of the nukes and we'll help you if anyone threatens you" - and now every other country to ever make a similar deal is going to understand that they're out in the cold.

Always have been, really; the 'states tend to back out on deals whenever they become unpopular at home.

Seems to me the only difference between Obama and past presidents is that Obama's as gutless publicly as the rest were privately.
Permalink
| March 17, 2014, 6:52 am
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